In this article, we want to explain what a VUCA environment is through a story that took place during the 17th century.
According to experts in this field, we have been living for some time now in VUCA times/environments, full of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. And if that weren’t enough, all of this is surrounded by a framework of increasing technology and digitalization that not only accelerates the answers but also the questions, which in turn forces us to accelerate the answers even more, creating an endless spiral, and suddenly… the world stops! But what is really new about this VUCA environment?
In 1663, Marie-Anne de La Trémoille was quietly recovering at home from an indisposition, one of many she suffered periodically. This had prevented her from attending the grand ball hosted by Monsieur, brother of the Sun King, where all of high society gathered in that aristocratic France where title and appearance were more important than substance, and where a simple bout of indigestion at the wrong time could keep you away from court for so long that you became almost invisible. The palace was quiet, waiting for the return of her husband Blaise de Talleyrand-Périgod, Count of Challais, a great title and great appearance, when the imperious sound of the alarm bell rang throughout the building. A message from her husband informed her that, disobeying royal orders, her husband had fought a duel at the exit of the party in the middle of the Place Royale, full of witnesses. Faced with the threat of the King’s wrath, her husband had fled to Madrid, where he had friends who would ensure his protection, and begged his wife to waste no time in filling trunks with clothes, jewelry, and all the money she could gather at that hour of the night, and to flee without hesitation to Spain, where she would be reunited with him. Fleeing in this manner was madness, but the world around her seemed to have been turned upside down in an instant, and without thinking twice (or perhaps even having done so), she set off. She called the servants, equipped the carriage, chose a servant to act as her coachman, another servant—who took a while to understand what was happening—to accompany her, and ran off, but not before dressing as a man, as did her servant, who was not at all comfortable with this, so that if anyone stopped them, they would look like a pair of noble gentlemen who had stayed out late after having fun with a young girl. The sound of the wheels rushing over the pavement broke the silence of the night, but no one stopped the group, and soon they were far from where the young king’s claws could harm them.
Thus began, suddenly, one of the most famous spy careers in history, for over the years Marie-Anne left Madrid and settled in Rome, where, through the art and grace of marriage, who was already a widow at the time, became Princess of Orsini and Duchess of Bracciano, and with time, Princess des Ursins, as she was known at the Spanish, French, and Roman courts, where she wielded great influence and managed, behind the scenes, part of the international politics of her time. No one would have guessed it when she ran away dressed as a man that day in 1663, and yet, if anyone other than her maid had seen her, they would have noticed a strange smile crossing her face, which she never lost.
Her story began amid volatility, and not just for her. The young maid found herself working at the court of Madrid overnight, and the coachman did not see his young wife again for a long time. By then, she had forgotten her husband and found herself a new family. It was understandable: her husband and mistress had disappeared overnight, the palace was empty, silent, and uninhabited, and neither she nor the rest of the staff knew what would become of them. In fact, we don’t know either, as the chronicles do not record her little story. The volatility was accompanied by uncertainty about what awaited the countess. Would she be welcomed in Madrid? Would she reach the border before the king could catch up with her? Would she be able to reunite with her husband, whose recklessness had forced her to flee Paris and the carefree life led by the young nobles of the time? There was no shortage of complexity; she was living in her own VUCA environment.
De hecho, la dificultad de la toma de decisiones se pondría de manifiesto al llegar a su destino cuando descubriría que lo que había tomado por un simple duelo había sido un gran alboroto en la que estaban implicados un gran número de nobles y muchos de ellos de mayor rango, por lo que el Rey se había visto obligado a tomar decisiones difíciles para no enfrentarse a toda una nobleza aún muy rebelde. Sin duda esto ayudó al monarca a tomar la decisión de alejarse de París y convertir Versalles en el centro de su poder absoluto. Situado a las afueras de la capital, lo suficientemente lejos para no estar a merced de los parisinos y lo suficientemente cerca como para controlarlos. En cuanto a condesa, de haber tenido toda la información, quizás hubiera decidido quedarse en la corte y desde su posición, litigar en favor de su esposo frente al Rey. En esas circunstancias era seguro que el Rey hubiera sido benévolo y todo hubiera quedado como una anécdota sin mayores consecuencias pero, ¿quién podía estar seguro en ese entorno VUCA? Cuando salió corriendo tomó una decisión con la información con la que contaba y con el análisis de su posibilidad de éxito. El mundo al que la joven condesa se enfrentaba era sin duda incierto pero sobre todo complicado. Una nueva corte, un nuevo idioma, un nuevo país, una nueva lengua (aunque el francés fuera universal habría que aprender el español para sobrevivir), nuevos amigos, alianzas y enemigos que la obligarían estar siempre atenta y no descuidarse ni un momento.
De la ambigüedad de ese entorno VUCA no hace falta insistir demasiado, salir corriendo vestida de There is no need to dwell on the ambiguity of that VUCA environment: running away dressed as a man, reigning in a court where there were no kings, spying for the French king and protected by the Spanish cardinal Portocarrero, widow of a husband who, upon leaving Spain, had gone to serve the Serenissima, living in a convent in Rome and maintaining an open and elegant court, having been one of the most important figures in securing the Spanish crown for Louis XIV’s grandson, who would rule as Philip V, and being responsible for arranging his two marriages, one of which she was able to control, while the second led to her expulsion from the Spanish court.
This is just one example of VUCA environments; every life and every era would provide us with an endless list of VUCA contexts. Without leaving the court of Louis XIV, since we have settled there, we would find many other cases, from Fouquet to any of the characters in Saint Simon’s memoirs. People lived in a VUCA environment just like ours, perhaps the difference being that back then they lived under an appearance of total immobility that hid mobile, uncertain, and extremely ambiguous environments. Today we live (or lived until the first great pandemic of our century) in VUCA environments that appear to be changing, unstable, and unknown, but which are deeply rooted in previous centuries and perhaps have less inconsistent structures than the speed of things seemed to indicate.
The VUCA environment has been a constant throughout history, but now we have been able to define, analyze, and accept it. And just when it seemed that we had overcome it, we have been “overcome” in another way by an unexpected, unpredictable, and still unknown environment. The VUCA environment has become more VUCA than ever, or at least more evident, and therefore it is time to seek a framework that is, if not immovable, at least stable.
This is what the law offers us, with all its limitations and drawbacks, with all its new developments and unknowns, but ultimately, it allows us to establish a solid framework on which to build—or rather, rebuild—the foundations of our company and business. We are seeing new regulations, emergency decrees, legislative developments, and other legal analyses being published which, given the current times, change day by day, complement each other, contradict each other, or quickly become obsolete. But let’s not fool ourselves, it is the limits of the framework that change, and even the perspective from which things are viewed may change, but within its broad spectrum of operation, the law allows us to set some reference points, anchor ourselves in sheltered areas, and steer our course by catching the waves sideways to climb them and descend less abruptly.
Don’t get me wrong, the law (and especially what we call “legislation”) suffers from the same ailments as the rest of society, the same instability, ambiguity, and complexity in tackling problems that we have only begun to glimpse. The law is so intertwined with our society that it necessarily suffers from the same ailments. However, today more than ever, it allows us, and must allow us, once the first wave has passed, to place ourselves in a framework of relative security which, while never perfect, will offer us the best framework for our navigation. Rather than an obstacle, we should consider the law as a traveling companion, a sextant that shows us the direction we have taken and situates us, not only on the map, but in real life. Let’s forget the VUCA environment and move on to the VUCAD environment.
That is what the law is for, and that is why it is worth always keeping it in mind.
